Talarico leads Paxton among Texas Hispanic business owners in new USHBC poll

A new United States Hispanic Business Council survey of Texas Hispanic business owners shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton, while inflation, tariffs, energy costs and immigration enforcement continue to weigh on business sentiment. The results suggest the race remains fluid as economic anxiety shapes views heading into the midterms.

Why it matters: - The poll offers a snapshot of how Texas Hispanic business owners are viewing the economy and the statewide race as affordability pressures continue. - The findings point to economic strain shaping both business decisions and candidate support among a group that can influence Texas politics. - USHBC President and CEO Javier Palomarez said Texas can serve as a litmus test for the national mood on affordability, immigration and economic opportunity.

What happened: - The United States Hispanic Business Council released its second Texas Member Midterm Pulse survey on October 6, 2026. - The survey shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 47% to 42% among participating Texas Hispanic business owners. - Talarico’s margin narrowed from seven points in June to five points in the latest poll. - Eleven percent of respondents said they were undecided. - The survey was conducted from September 12-26, 2026. - Respondents were Texas Hispanic business owners who are members of USHBC.

The details: - Affordability and energy costs ranked as the leading concerns across party lines. - Fifty-three percent of respondents said business conditions are worse than a year ago. - Sixty-eight percent reported a negative impact from tariffs. - Sixty-three percent said immigration enforcement is affecting their workforce. - Among independents, Talarico led Paxton 39% to 25%. - Thirty-six percent of independents remained undecided. - Sixty-four percent of respondents said they have raised prices over the past year. - Fifty-two percent said they have delayed investment or expansion. - Forty-eight percent said they have reduced hiring. - Palomarez said the council’s In Dialogue: Texas conversations with both Senate candidates helped the public compare their views on the economy, immigration, energy and small business.

Between the lines: - The narrowing margin suggests both candidates are consolidating support as undecided voters shrink. - The business data suggests economic pressure is not just a political issue. It is changing how owners set prices, hire workers and plan growth. - The survey reinforces that immigration enforcement and trade policy are landing directly on day-to-day operations for many Hispanic-owned firms.

What's next: - USHBC said the survey adds another data point to its ongoing engagement with Texas voters and business owners. - The organization directed readers to view the survey’s raw data, summary tables and key crosstabs. - USHBC also encouraged people to follow @myushbc and @JPalomarez on X and to visit ushbc.com/join for membership information. - The Texas race will likely remain a test of how economic concerns and immigration policy shape Hispanic business voter sentiment.