AGP Executive Report

Energy Security: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister vowed a “serious” response after deadly Houthi attacks hit Riyadh airport, warning that the strikes tested the kingdom’s infrastructure and resilience. Trade: China and the EU say a deal on hybrid and electric vehicle trade has eased tensions, while China and New Zealand plan to accelerate talks on services and expand cooperation in clean energy. US–Ghana Relations: President John Mahama says Ghana will keep rejecting terms in a proposed US health compact that it views as a threat to national sovereignty, while remaining open to negotiations. India–UK Ties: More than 100 UK businesses joined a trade mission to India that announced £1 billion in deals across AI, aviation, healthcare and infrastructure. Economic Policy: Robert Hall and Michael Woodford won the economics Nobel for research underpinning models used by governments and central banks to manage economic shocks. AI Oversight: Calls are growing for stronger safeguards, including independent reviews of AI products and mandatory reporting when systems cause harm.

Middle East Escalation: Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia continued, with attacks hitting Riyadh and Dammam airports. A Riyadh airport attack killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers have spoken about regional tensions, in their first publicly reported contact since the latest escalation. Global Economy: IMF and World Bank meetings open in Bangkok as officials confront war-driven energy and inflation risks, high borrowing costs and pressure on public finances. Britain’s finance minister is expected to urge major economies to rein in borrowing. Ukraine War: Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire, but President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv was awaiting details and Russia’s response. Trade and Development: Bangladesh says it will streamline business rules as Japan’s Marubeni explores investment in sectors including energy, technology and manufacturing. Separately, former African Development Bank chief Akinwumi Adesina urged African countries to process more resources locally and build industries through regional trade.

Poland Security: Authorities ordered an investigation and convened counterterrorism officials after police received information about a possible attack on Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Details of the threat remain unclear. Ukraine War and Energy: Donald Trump called for Ukraine to replace Volodymyr Zelensky after announcing a Russian diesel supply deal intended to ease fuel shortages. Kyiv says the trade would help finance Moscow’s war; the US plans to temporarily lift sanctions to allow deliveries. Middle East Conflict: A Houthi attack on Riyadh’s airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to reports. The UK condemned the strike and said it is supporting Saudi air defences. China’s Economy: Official data point to improving momentum in the third quarter, with stronger consumer spending, infrastructure investment and activity in AI and robotics. Malaysia’s Budget: Proposed 2027 measures include raising the minimum wage to RM2,000 for larger companies and expanding support for first-time homebuyers and gig workers.

Middle East Escalation: An attack on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309 as Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi group exchanged strikes on key airports. Ukraine and Energy: Donald Trump says Russia will supply millions of tonnes of diesel to global markets, but Volodymyr Zelenskyy warns the sales could fund Moscow’s war. Trump then called for Ukraine to replace Zelenskyy, drawing fresh criticism as Russian strikes batter the country’s cities and industry. In Kryvyi Rih, missile attacks have shut down a major steel complex, deepening Ukraine’s economic and budget crisis. Global Economy: The UN forecasts world growth of 2.6% in 2026 and warns poorer countries face widening inequalities. The EU and China, meanwhile, reached an interim trade deal that could curb Chinese hybrid-car exports. Palestinian Politics: Mahmoud Abbas postponed legislative and presidential elections until September 2027, citing Israeli restrictions and the severe security and humanitarian conditions in Gaza.

Energy and War: Trump says Russia will supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to US and global markets after Washington temporarily eased sanctions. Ukraine warns the exports could help fund Russia’s war, while analysts doubt the move will keep fuel prices down. Trade Diplomacy: China and the EU agreed to explore tariff cuts and ease trade barriers. Cambodia and Vietnam set a $20 billion annual trade target, while Malaysia and Egypt elevated ties to a strategic partnership, with plans to expand cooperation in sectors including energy, electronics and agriculture. Economic Outlook: Global trade reached a record $35 trillion despite conflict, but growth is forecast to slow to 2.6%, with gaps widening between regions. In the US, consumer confidence sank to its lowest level since 2014 as unemployment rose, adding pressure ahead of midterm elections. Global Health: The World Health Summit opens in Berlin amid a 23% drop in development aid in 2025, raising fresh questions about funding and cooperation across global health systems.

Moldova’s EU Push: Chişinău says it is ready to open four more EU accession negotiation clusters, while officials warn that Russian hybrid operations aim to erode trust in democracy. President Maia Sandu also urged greater U.S. investment and security cooperation. Trade Tensions: China and the EU announced a preliminary deal to ease trade strains, including steps that could cut Chinese hybrid-car exports to Europe by up to half and stabilize rare-earth supplies. EU approval is still needed. Growth and Energy: UN forecasts put global growth at 2.6% in 2026, with trade growth slowing. Meanwhile, Trump says Russia will supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel to U.S. and global markets as shipping risks squeeze energy trade. India’s Connectivity Fight: Elon Musk accused Mukesh Ambani of blocking Starlink’s entry to protect a monopoly; India’s government rejected the claim and said regulatory approvals remain in progress.

Global Growth: UNCTAD expects the world economy to expand 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% last year, warning that energy shocks and financial instability are weighing on prospects. Humanitarian Costs: An Irish minister is set to tell EU development ministers that US aid cuts may have contributed to as many as 700,000 deaths worldwide. Middle East Tensions: Donald Trump says indirect talks with Iran are underway and he will not resume strikes before November’s US midterms; meanwhile, Iran’s president and Vladimir Putin discussed closer cooperation in energy, agriculture, transport and trade. Trade Fault Lines: The EU and China face a crunch in efforts to avert a trade war, while Beijing’s push to expand the yuan’s role in cross-border payments gains ground. Energy Security: UNCTAD says diversifying energy supplies could help tackle supply-driven inflation as conflict and shipping disruptions strain global markets.

Cybersecurity: Global data breaches exposed personal information belonging to at least 320 million people since September, a Nikkei tally found; some attacks may have involved AI. Yemen Conflict: Fighting escalated, with at least three people reportedly killed and eight injured in coalition strikes. The Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi airports; the coalition said it intercepted missiles. Iran’s Economy: The US moved to target much of Iran’s remaining shadow-fleet network, while Iranian and Russian leaders discussed expanding trade, energy, agriculture and transport ties. Economic Resilience: Portugal’s central bank chief urged preparation for increasingly frequent financial shocks. The government says its proposed 2027 budget surplus and lower debt would help the country withstand a crisis. Moldova’s Security: President Maia Sandu said EU membership would strengthen protection against Russian threats, citing repeated drone incursions and the need for better air defenses.

Global Trade: The EU is preparing for tougher talks with China over a €360 billion trade deficit, with European lawmakers urging stronger action to protect industries from subsidized imports. Separately, the UAE and Thailand have concluded negotiations on a trade pact aimed at lowering barriers and expanding investment. Water Diplomacy: Bangladesh hopes to renew its Ganges water-sharing treaty with India before it expires on Dec. 12, and is seeking to restore a guarantee clause for water flows. Regional Ties: Malaysia and Myanmar agreed to deepen cooperation during President Min Aung Hlaing’s visit; Myanmar also agreed to accept large-scale repatriation of its nationals at its own expense. Economic Strains: Weak investment, energy shortages and rising poverty are weighing on Bangladesh’s economy, prompting calls for urgent reforms. Global Health: H. pylori remains widespread and contributes to around a million gastric cancers annually, while polio cases have fallen 99.9% through eradication efforts; the disease remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Development Finance: Qatar told the UN that developing countries face mounting debt, climate costs, investment gaps and trade disruptions, calling for stronger international cooperation to build resilient economies. 1MDB Recovery: Malaysia says it has recovered RM31.3 billion in misappropriated assets, but has paid RM42.5 billion toward the scandal’s costs and still faces RM20.1 billion in obligations if no more funds are recovered. Central Asian Diplomacy: Kazakhstan’s president is visiting Turkmenistan for regional and CIS leaders’ meetings and a Caspian environmental summit, following new bilateral agreements in July. Pacific Influence: The United States sanctioned Fiji-based businessman Zhao Fugang over alleged corruption linked to China-based actors, amid concerns about foreign influence and criminal networks in the region. Trade Tensions: A Republican Senate candidate in Michigan called for an end to the US-Canada tariff dispute, saying the two countries are not enemies and tariffs push up prices.

Education & Youth Mobility: Philippines House Speaker Dy III welcomed ratification of the Presidential Merit College Scholarship Programs, aiming to fund college and technical education costs beyond tuition for low- to middle-income top students. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Taiwan’s foreign minister joined U.S. officials to open a new representative office in Phoenix as Taiwanese firms expand in Arizona, including TSMC’s massive $265B investment. Regional Economic Policy: Malaysia launched a Human Rights Due Diligence guide for businesses to help firms prevent and address human rights risks as it implements its 2025-2030 action plan. Global Health Governance: A new WHO leadership race is framed as a test of whether countries can deliver real global health cooperation, with calls for stronger country ownership and health-system focus. Energy & Industry Investment: Canada’s PM Mark Carney said expanding existing oilsands mines is “a possibility” as the Pacific Link Pipeline plan targets new export capacity. Trade & Growth: Ghana approved a formal move to apply to join BRICS, citing diversification of economic and diplomatic ties. Business & Finance: Malaysia reported 1H2026 tax revenue up 9% to RM129.6B, supported by higher corporate income tax and SST collections. Climate & Development: Mauritania’s environment minister warned at COP in Baku that Africa still needs far more lasting climate finance to match rising drought, floods, and food-security impacts.

Trade & Costs: Cebu cargo handlers are asking for a 25% jump in domestic port and cargo fees, but business chambers warn a fast hike could squeeze micro, small and medium firms and raise consumer prices. Semiconductors & Jobs: Malaysia says 21,391 semiconductor talents have been trained since 2023, supporting a push for 60,000 skilled workers by 2030. Corporate Deals: AkzoNobel will sell its South East Asia Decorative Paints business to Nippon Paint for about $1.35B, as it refocuses on coatings and other units. Local Business Survival: Maryland’s Purple Line delays are still hurting small businesses, with the state moving to add support as the project nears “significant completion” by end-2026. Energy & Climate Tech: Qatar is pitching “waste-to-fuel” ideas—turning food scraps and biomass into biofuels and alternative energy—to create new revenue while cutting emissions. Regional Trade Ambition: A survey says 81.3% of African CEOs expect more cross-border growth, even as intra-Africa trade shares remain stuck. Politics & Security: US VP JD Vance says any Iran deal must include a meaningful cut in nuclear enrichment, while Bulgaria’s Black Sea ship attack prompts calls for clearer facts and NATO talks. Infrastructure Resilience: Nepal’s minister argues for a “paradigm shift” toward disaster-resistant infrastructure and better water management. Sports as Business: Walmart China’s growth strategy is spotlighted through CEO Christina Zhu, while Qatar’s sports push is framed as long-term national development.

Malaysia Budget 2027 Watch: RHB Investment Bank expects Malaysia’s 2027 Budget to lean into higher transport spending, with possible late-2026 “job wins” tied to projects like Penang LRT and new hospitals. Financial Literacy & Inclusion: Bank Negara says a gig-worker focused GoGiggers programme boosted financial well-being by 34.4%, with most participants starting emergency savings. MedTech Push in Penang: Penang reports RM2.3bn in MedTech approved investments since 2021, plus nearly 4,500 jobs, and eyes more US deals as AI and data centres expand. Cybersecurity Alarm: South Korea’s president orders faster action after AI-linked hacking exposed customer data at seven financial firms. Energy & Trade Risks: Saudi Arabia says its East-West pipeline is flowing again after a shutdown tied to drone attacks, underscoring how regional conflict keeps oil routes jittery. Regional Diplomacy: Malaysia prepares for Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing’s visit, focusing on repatriation and ASEAN engagement. Business & Compliance Reality Check: A UK business analysis warns companies talk AI while still running compliance through spreadsheets and email chains. Sri Lanka Economy: The World Bank says growth has returned to 2018 levels, but poverty and jobs lag, with food and energy volatility still a threat.

US-Iran Financial Pressure: The U.S. Treasury warned foreign financial institutions that doing business with Iran or its financial sector could trigger sanctions without advance notice, as Washington tries to choke off Iran’s dollar access. Afghanistan Rights Accountability: The ICC unsealed arrest warrants for two Taliban education ministers accused of gender-based persecution tied to bans on girls’ schooling and women’s higher education. India–Switzerland Diplomacy & Trade: Modi and Swiss President Guy Parmelin pledged cooperation on global peace, reforms in institutions, trusted supply chains, and defense and nuclear energy links ahead of Geneva 2027. Business Confidence Watch: New Zealand firms’ optimism jumped in the latest survey despite Middle East uncertainty, with expectations for demand improving into 2027. Regional Business Support: In Rochester, business owners criticized a city “Business Forward” plan as too focused on marketing while they seek direct rent and payroll help during transit construction. Education & Safety: Kuwait’s education minister suspended a school administration for three months after a suffocation incident involving students, while investigations continue. Higher Ed Spotlight: UP Manila climbed to No. 447 in U.S. News global rankings, leading the Philippines in the Top 500. Energy Prices Relief: St Lucia extended fuel and cooking-gas subsidies to cushion higher global import costs.

Spain Housing Crisis: Spain’s minority PM Pedro Sánchez called a snap election for Nov 29 after housing decrees were rejected in parliament, with the vote also derailed by Junts per Catalunya. EU Economic Support: The European Commission released another €157m to Moldova after Chisinau completed 18 reforms, pushing the country toward deeper EU single-market integration. Malaysia Economy & Housing: Bank Negara Malaysia says household finances remain resilient despite global shocks, while analysts expect Budget 2027 to prioritize homeownership and affordable housing via existing schemes. AI & Business Risks: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the public should accept some AI harm as trade-offs, as Malaysia’s Zetrix AI faced JPJ service suspension. Energy & Industry Deals: Yinson Production expanded its Ghana gas project with Eni, extending an FPSO lease to 2036, while Alfa Laval began integrating Desmet to strengthen biofuels and oils/fats processing. Geopolitics & Security: US arrested a woman accused of spying for China on Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s son; Mossad chief discussed Turkish military deployments in Syria ahead of strikes. Trade & Growth: AMRO lifted Malaysia’s growth forecast on AI-related exports and investment, and India-UAE talks focused on expanding trade and business cooperation.

Brazil Election: Flavio Bolsonaro took an early lead over Lula as voting results began to roll in, with the race framed by economic anxiety and corruption allegations. Ghana Economy: Writers warn Ghana’s recovery still hasn’t reached the “kitchen table,” even as inflation falls and growth improves—while businesses face expensive, unreliable power and credit rates above 25%. Ghana Industry vs Imports: Local firms are squeezed between high borrowing costs and cheap imports, threatening jobs and industrialisation. Space & Tech: Antalya hosts the IAC 2026, spotlighting AI in space, crowded skies, and the next push toward the moon. UK Labour Shortages: UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood says ministers request foreign worker visas weekly to plug gaps, arguing departments rely too much on immigration instead of training. GCC Justice: Gulf justice ministers meet in Bahrain to strengthen judicial and legal cooperation. Nigeria Security: Borno’s agriculture minister demands justice after 15 farmers were killed, with missing people still being sought. Climate Resilience: Malolos City in the Philippines showcases a nature-based coastal barrier model drawing ASEAN and European interest. Business & Finance: Global rice prices jumped nearly 10% in September, driven mainly by higher Indica quotations.