AGP Executive Report

Trade Tensions: Canada and the US say a trade deal is advancing, but tariffs are already hitting Alaska businesses: one aviation supplier faced a $9,100 charge on helicopter parts from Ontario. Energy & Leverage: OCBC raised its Brent crude forecast to $100 a barrel by year-end, citing supply constraints. Russia’s restrictions on Georgian drink makers also expose Georgia’s reliance on the Russian market, where it sells most of its wine exports. Asia’s Investment Push: Chinese businesses have indicated plans for US$15 billion in Malaysian investment, including in semiconductors and green energy. The Johor-Singapore economic zone has approved RM88.83 billion in investment, with 45% realized so far. Global Politics: Commonwealth leaders are gathering in Antigua amid political turmoil, with trade, climate and economic pressures on the agenda. Bulgaria has elected Iliana Yotova as its first female president.

Bulgaria’s Vote: Incumbent Iliana Iotova is projected to win the presidential runoff with about 58%, defeating pro-Western candidate Andrey Gyurov. Iotova opposes military aid to Ukraine and favors dialogue with Moscow. Trade Talks: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says discussions with President Trump made progress, while Trump described a possible US-Canada deal as a “concept”; formal talks are expected to resume. Market Jitters: Asian shares fell as investors questioned whether heavy spending on artificial intelligence can deliver lasting returns. Apple, AMD and Palantir earnings are now in focus. Economic Support: Egypt signed a $1 billion World Bank financing deal to support reforms. Separately, a China-Peru trade pact upgrade has taken effect, aiming to ease trade and expand investment. Disaster Costs: Natural disasters caused an estimated $204 billion in global economic losses in the first nine months of 2026, with only 45% covered by insurance. Insured losses reached $91 billion.

Bulgaria’s Runoff: Voters are choosing between incumbent Iliana Iotova, who favors dialogue with Moscow, and pro-Western Andrey Gurov, amid regional security concerns and reports of attempted vote-buying. Poland’s Court Crisis: President Karol Nawrocki has called crisis talks after a clash over judicial appointments deepened the standoff with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government; Brussels urged Warsaw to ensure the constitutional court can function lawfully. Supply Chains: Quad foreign ministers backed closer cooperation on critical minerals and secure supply chains, while criticizing export restrictions. US-China Trade: A temporary truce has eased tariff tensions, but both powers are still competing for economic and technological advantage, leaving the risk of renewed conflict. Global Diplomacy: G20 foreign ministers ended talks without agreement on key security issues, underscoring divisions over trade, sanctions and food supply chains.

Iran Diplomacy: Qatari mediators delivered a revised proposal to Tehran aimed at ending the US-Iran war. President Trump said the conflict could end soon, but offered no details. Trade and Security: Quad foreign ministers called for reliable supply chains and denounced export restrictions, while stressing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. G20 Divisions: Foreign ministers ended Atlanta talks without consensus, with Ukraine among the points of dispute. India’s Jaishankar also warned that sanctions, attacks and shipping disruptions are driving energy-market instability and hurting poorer countries. China-Europe Ties: Xi Jinping urged Germany to deepen its strategic partnership with China and support openness and cooperation. Regional Trade: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan discussed expanding trade through transport, agriculture and other sectors; Pakistan and Qatar identified nine areas for closer cooperation, including logistics, energy and investment. Africa-Russia Cooperation: Ghana’s President John Mahama returned from the Russia-Africa Summit after discussions on investment, agriculture and a proposed nuclear power plant.

Regional Security: Syria is considering joining the Makkah defence pact linking Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, its foreign minister said. Red Sea and Hormuz: Germany has sent a minesweeper and support ship toward the Red Sea as it weighs a possible mission in the Strait of Hormuz; any deployment would depend on approval from Iran and Oman and progress in US-Iran talks. Housing Crisis: About 3.4 billion people face inadequate housing, and more than 1.16 billion live in informal settlements, UN-Habitat’s assembly president said, urging governments and businesses to expand affordable housing. Wildlife Trade: A new study identified more than 107,000 traded species—over twice previous estimates—and warned that sparse monitoring leaves the trade’s scale and sustainability unclear. Poland’s Court Standoff: President Karol Nawrocki accused Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government of seizing the Constitutional Tribunal after its chief was suspended, deepening a fight over control of the judiciary. Asia-Pacific Trade: Malaysia and Singapore plan to launch their special economic zone master plan, with both prime ministers expected to attend.

Asia-Europe Ties: Xi Jinping met German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Swiss President Guy Parmelin in Beijing, calling for openness and closer cooperation; China and Switzerland also signed an updated trade deal to cut tariffs. Conflict and Security: Yemen’s Houthis fired two missiles at the presidential palace in Aden. Saudi forces said they intercepted a drone near Riyadh and a missile aimed at the kingdom’s south. Economic Outlook: Eurozone growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter, while France’s economy shrank 0.1%; Canada’s economy also stalled for a second straight month in August. Trade and Development: African representatives urged countries to remove customs and other barriers to regional trade. In Pakistan, SMEDA and Alibaba plan to train 10,000 small businesses and help up to 2,000 reach international buyers. Climate Finance: Global biodiversity conservation faces a $700 million funding gap, Guyana’s Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo said, urging work on credible biodiversity-credit markets. Poland’s Court Crisis: President Karol Nawrocki cut short a trip to Senegal and returned home after a senior judge suspended the head of the Constitutional Tribunal, escalating a standoff with the government.

Economic Divide: The eurozone grew 0.4% in Q3, ahead of forecasts, helped by Ireland’s 5.5% expansion; Germany grew just 0.2% and France contracted. The U.S. economy expanded at a brisk 3.4% pace, while Canada stalled in August and may have shrunk in September. AI Market Jitters: Heavy tech spending is unsettling investors over whether AI will deliver returns, driving a sharp selloff in tech shares and a rally in U.S. bonds. Trade and Diplomacy: Germany’s president says dialogue can ease trade tensions with China, its largest trading partner, despite a €90 billion trade imbalance. India and Poland aim to double bilateral trade by 2030, alongside stronger defence and technology ties. ECB Leadership: Christine Lagarde will leave the European Central Bank on February 7, nearly nine months before her term ends, starting a leadership transition as the bloc faces inflation and uneven growth. Spain Rail Disaster: At least 69 people died in a train crash, the second mass-casualty rail accident in Spain this year. The transport minister rejected calls to resign as scrutiny of rail safety intensified.

China’s Trade Opening: Beijing unveiled 16 measures to ease foreign businesses’ access to Hainan, including longer permits for overseas doctors and new opportunities in energy and bonded trade. Climate and Supply Chains: El Niño-driven drought is lowering river levels in Indonesia and limiting coal transport, adding uncertainty to global supplies. Nepal says devastating floods and landslides will require about $4.7 billion in recovery costs and is urging stronger global climate action. Mediterranean Tensions: Greece’s prime minister called a Turkey-Libya maritime deal “null and void” and urged an international truce to protect Black Sea shipping after a Greek-owned vessel sank. Venezuela’s Political Future: Opposition leader María Corina Machado says the country is moving toward a 2027 presidential election and is calling for political prisoners to be freed. Global Economy: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to leave her post early in February. In Japan, rising prices are pushing shoppers away from convenience stores, a shift that could weigh on the economy as the central bank considers raising rates.

European Markets: ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed she will leave in February, nine months before her term ends, as investors weighed the succession and the bank’s next rate decision. European stocks rose and bond yields eased ahead of an expected pause in rate hikes. Trade and Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from the Organization of Turkic States met in Ankara to expand cooperation in energy, trade and digital policy, with a focus on the Middle Corridor linking Asia and Europe. Clean Energy: India says companies have signed green-hydrogen supply commitments exceeding 550,000 tonnes a year, including more than 400,000 tonnes in deals signed in 2026. Global Manufacturing: Volkswagen plans to export at least 300,000 China-made vehicles annually by 2030, along with technologies developed there, targeting markets in Asia, the Middle East and South America. European Integration: Moldova’s government outlined 912 priority projects backed by its EU-supported Growth Plan, including a €1.2 billion highway intended to connect Chișinău to European transport networks.

Commodity Shock: The World Bank forecasts commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 as conflict-driven supply disruptions deplete oil stocks and threaten food affordability, inflation and growth. Trade Tensions: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Ottawa is not ready to finalize a trade deal with the U.S., despite pressure to reach an agreement before the U.S. midterms. Global Finance: The IMF has proposed China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao Min for a deputy managing director post, as the fund confronts trade fragmentation and debt distress. Green Transition: ASEAN officials are urging investment in green industries and skills training to turn regional climate commitments into decent jobs while protecting workers. Investment Ties: Qatari and Egyptian business leaders discussed expanding investment and joint projects, with Egypt planning a dedicated office to support Qatari investors.

Israel’s Election: Early results show no clear majority for either bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or challenger Gadi Eisenkot, setting up potentially lengthy coalition talks. UK Budget: Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government presented its first budget, promising support for workers and businesses amid global economic pressures. Iraq–Syria Ties: Iraq’s prime minister made the first such visit since Assad’s fall, with security, trade routes and energy links on the agenda. Energy Pressures: Malaysia raised its 2026 producer-price forecast as the West Asia conflict fuels oil-market risks; soaring fuel costs have also forced a residential cruise ship to suspend its world voyage. Asia’s Economy: Malaysia’s digital economy is forecast to grow 20% this year to US$48 billion, driven by e-commerce, travel and AI adoption. China Diplomacy: Switzerland’s president is due to visit China, where leaders are expected to discuss trade and their strategic partnership. Gaza Relief: The UAE announced Dh50 million in winter and medical aid as debate continues over political constraints on international humanitarian assistance.

Global Inflation: Economists expect prices to stay high into 2027 across many economies, as energy costs and geopolitical tensions spread pressure, even with growth supported by AI investment. Climate and Health: Researchers say heat-related deaths have surged since the Paris Agreement and are urging a global health emergency declaration ahead of COP31. Trade: Canada and the UAE signed a free-trade deal and agreed to discuss an extradition treaty; business leaders in Finland and India also called for stronger trade and investment ties. Brazil: Lula won a close runoff to secure a fourth term, but the result highlights deep political and religious divisions. His defeated rival Flávio Bolsonaro left the country, with the U.S. saying it would issue visas to him and his family. Pakistan Economy: Business leaders say a rate rise to 12% will raise borrowing costs, while arguing that energy prices and supply disruptions—not domestic demand—are driving inflation.

Middle East Diplomacy: Qatar’s emir and Iran’s president met in Moscow to discuss regional negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies, as diplomacy to end the war continues. Ukraine Talks: Finland’s president and Norway’s prime minister spoke directly with Vladimir Putin, urging renewed negotiations and an end to the conflict; the call was coordinated with Ukraine. Global Markets: Stocks edged higher and oil prices fell as investors weighed Middle East diplomacy, ahead of major technology earnings and central bank decisions. Trade and Growth: India and the Netherlands discussed investment, supply chains and a possible India-EU trade pact, while India’s new trade portal has drawn about 3,500 registrations to connect businesses with US buyers. China’s stronger-than-expected growth was lifted by exports, while Vietnamese officials urged the country to move into higher-value global supply chains. Brazil’s Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a historic fourth term, but the result is being challenged by Bolsonaro’s camp.

Brazil’s Election: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth, nonconsecutive term with 51.8% of the vote, making a historic comeback over Flávio Bolsonaro. He now faces a divided country, a hostile Congress and mounting economic pressures. Ukraine and Moldova: Leaders in Kyiv reaffirmed cooperation on security, EU integration and transport links for Ukrainian goods. Moldova also offered to help Ukrainian businesses reach Romanian and Balkan markets. Climate: A UN report warns that current national pledges would still fail to keep warming below 1.5°C; it says deeper emissions cuts remain essential. Europe’s Politics: Bulgaria’s presidential race is heading to a November 1 runoff after a first round marked by low turnout, with incumbent Iliana Yotova narrowly ahead of Andrey Gyurov. Trade Talks: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says the United States is moving closer to Canada’s position, though a deal is not yet complete.

Brazil’s Vote: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth, nonconsecutive term, but Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to accept the result. Brazilian markets tumbled amid investor concerns over political uncertainty and Lula’s fiscal plans. Trade and Energy: Canada’s EDC and Türkiye’s Türk Eximbank agreed to work together on trade and investment, including in Africa and Central Asia. A proposed Vietnam-to-Singapore offshore wind project could bring Malaysian firms into transmission work, while Iran-Pakistan trade has partly resumed despite thousands of trucks still backed up at the border. Ukraine’s Economy: Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky urged businesses to prepare for attacks and disruption, warning of a $1.5 billion budget gap and billions in damage. G20 Talks: South Korea’s foreign minister plans to join G20 counterparts in the US to discuss geopolitical tensions, energy and supply chains.

Brazil’s Political Shift: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth, non-consecutive term with 51.7% of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a tight runoff. The result defied first-round voting and recent polls. Serbia’s Election: President Aleksandar Vučić conceded defeat as a student-led list claimed a parliamentary win, marking a major challenge to his party’s 14-year hold on power. Yemen Conflict: Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces traded attacks over the weekend, with both sides reporting missile and drone strikes. The claims could not be independently verified; a ceasefire in place since 2022 collapsed in July. Trade and Diplomacy: At a Doha forum, WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said global trade reached a record $35 trillion last year and urged investment in transport links and more predictable rules to withstand disruptions. The EU also signalled plans to deepen cooperation with Qatar on trade, energy and regional security. Supply Chain Strain: Peru’s curtailed anchovy fishing season threatens to push global fish-oil production to a decade low, raising risks for aquaculture and other industries that rely on the supply.