AGP Executive Report

Middle East Flashpoint: The US and Iran traded strikes after Iran shot down a US Apache near the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of wider escalation along a key energy shipping lane. Oil & Currencies: India is scrambling for supply after the disruption, with analysts warning high prices could keep pressuring the rupee, growth and public finances. Africa Health & Politics: Kenya’s proposed US-backed Ebola quarantine facility has sparked protests and court action, turning a public health plan into a sovereignty and transparency fight. Ocean Economy: A UNCTAD study says ocean-related services hit $1.44T in 2025 (58% of ocean trade), led by marine tourism and port services, but remains vulnerable to shocks. South Asia Trade & Growth: India approved foreign university campuses (Bristol, York, UNSW) to boost international higher education, while Bangladesh’s central bank launched an export refinance scheme to cut reliance on garments. Business & Tech: Chips&Media licensed next-gen video codec IP to Ambarella for edge/AI vision; Samsung reported nearly 90T won in 2025 chip investment. Climate: EU monitoring says May 2026 was the world’s second-warmest May, with an early heatwave across Western Europe.

Middle East Shock: A U.S. Army Apache helicopter crashed near the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump blaming Iran and saying the U.S. must respond, as the wider Iran-Israel conflict keeps rattling markets and raising energy and food costs. Global Food Pressure: The World Food Programme warns the war could push 45 million people into severe food insecurity by June, with aid strained by funding cuts. Markets & Tech Mood: Global stocks bounced as oil eased on a temporary halt in attacks, while investors chased AI-linked listings and big tech earnings, even as bond yields stay high. Airlines Cost Crunch: U.S. airlines spent about $6.5B on fuel in April, and jet fuel is expected to keep weighing on airline margins globally. Competition Watch: Curaçao’s FTAC urged businesses to avoid abuse of dominant market positions, warning against bundling, predatory pricing, and forcing exclusive suppliers. Regional Unity & Trade: Malaysia’s deputy PM said West Asia tensions shouldn’t break community unity, while Qatar and Sweden discussed mediation efforts to de-escalate Iran talks. Business Leadership Moves: Citi hired Andrew Conway to lead consumer and retail investment banking, and Blackstone reported improving individual investor inflows in June.

US Politics & Security: Donald Trump became the first sitting U.S. president to attend an NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden, triggering airport-style checks and tighter crowd controls. AI & Business: OpenAI has filed confidentially for a Wall Street IPO, while Algebra AI launched with $7M to build tailored AI operations for mid-market firms. Trade & Markets: China’s foreign trade rose 15.3% in the first five months, and markets tracked a tech-led rebound as investors digest global cues. Immigration & Labor: Swiss unions and business groups are mobilizing against a proposed cap on immigration, warning of labor shortages and EU fallout. Digital Payments: In Cebu, fragmented QR payment systems are quietly draining small businesses as reconciliation and bookkeeping stay costly. Energy & Economy: Turkey’s finance minister says inflation’s downward trend can continue despite Middle East war shocks. Local Economy: Nigeria’s naira opened weaker on the week, while Ireland’s Apache Pizza announced 120 new jobs with store expansion.

US Politics & Security: President Trump is set to become the first sitting U.S. president to attend an NBA Finals game, with heavy NYPD/Secret Service security and strict entry rules around Madison Square Garden. Middle East Diplomacy: Iran and Qatar foreign ministers discussed US-Iran talks and regional tensions, as Lebanon remains a key focus amid renewed Israel-Iran exchanges. Ukraine-Russia: Deadly air strikes continued between Russia and Ukraine even as ceasefire diplomacy pushes on, including attacks hitting homes and energy infrastructure. South Caucasus Regional Cooperation: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye held a trilateral foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul and signed the Istanbul Declaration, backing trade, energy security and connectivity like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. Global Food & Energy Risks: FAO warned the Strait of Hormuz crisis is a global food-security threat, especially via fertilizer and logistics shocks. Climate & Public Trust: A UN-linked push argues water policy can rebuild trust in global cooperation, while warnings grow about a potentially extreme “Godzilla El Niño” scenario. Business & Tech: Nuvion joined Circle Payments Network to enable near-instant, stablecoin-based cross-border settlement for global businesses.

Middle East Escalation: Israel and Iran traded retaliatory strikes again, raising fears the conflict could spiral beyond the current ceasefire and hit global markets. US Politics & War Narrative: Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press” he never “guaranteed” “no new wars,” while critics warn his Iran approach could worsen instability. EU Security: EU defence ministers met in Nicosia to focus on Ukraine support and maritime security, including steps to curb Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Public Health: WHO and Africa CDC called for stronger international action to contain a fast-moving Ebola outbreak in DR Congo and Uganda, launching a six-month preparedness and response plan. Global Markets: Stocks slid and oil jumped as investors reacted to Middle East risk and a cooling AI boom. Peru Vote Count: Peru’s presidential runoff vote tally began amid reports of delays and ballot irregularities, with crime and insecurity central to the race. Malaysia Immigration Crackdown: Malaysia ordered tougher enforcement against foreigners misusing visitor/student visas to run businesses, citing harm to local jobs. Tech in Banking: Azerbaijan’s Bank ABB rolled out voice-enabled AI assistants for customers after a large beta trial. Energy & Climate (Egypt): Egypt launched a Red Sea initiative to protect coral reefs and push sustainable blue-economy investment. Regional Diplomacy (Jordan-Iraq): Jordan’s PM stressed Iraq’s security as key to regional stability amid border and airspace threats.

Airlines’ Profit Warning: IATA cut its 2026 global airline net profit forecast to about $23B, nearly half the prior estimate, blaming Middle East conflict, higher jet fuel costs, and Gulf airspace disruption. Trade & Finance Tech: Bangladesh’s Mutual Trust Bank launched “MTB Trade X,” a digital portal to streamline trade transaction requests and tracking end-to-end. Dubai Trade Surge: Dubai’s DIEZ logged record 2025 trade of about Dh491B (+46%), boosting the emirate’s non-oil trade share to 16%. Border Modernization: India’s Home Minister will launch a Land Port Management System to digitize land-port cargo and passenger processing and cut border delays. Energy Politics in South Asia: India visit diplomacy dominated Nepal’s Rabi Lamichhane messaging, while India-linked LPG price hikes sparked renewed political heat in Maharashtra. Immigration Crackdown: South Africa’s Ramaphosa warned anti-immigrant groups against inciting violence, saying enforcement remains government’s job. US Political Tension: Trump walked off “Meet the Press” after election and January 6-related pushback, escalating claims about rigged voting. Thailand Wellness Push: Thailand’s deputy PM inspected a GMP-certified herbal extraction facility in Songkhla as part of a drive to build a southern wellness economy.

Media livelihoods: Malaysia’s journalists are turning to side hustles—like a coffee catering business—to cope with shifting media work and rising living costs. Regional politics: Kosovo heads to a snap parliamentary election again after parties failed to agree on a president, deepening a governance deadlock that’s hit the economy. Gender rule in court: Kenya’s High Court rejected a plan to dissolve Parliament over failure to implement the two-thirds gender rule, spotlighting how constitutional promises get stuck in politics. Middle East diplomacy: Pakistan’s interior minister arrives in Tehran for talks tied to Islamabad’s mediation between Iran and the US, with border security and tension-reduction on the agenda. Energy and food prices: Pakistan faces a severe irrigation water shortage at Sukkur Barrage, threatening Kharif crops and exposing governance strains. Trade and costs: Kenya’s Finance Bill 2026 excise-duty clause could slash up to a third of Sh350bn in EAC trade by removing partner-state exemptions. Aviation climate push: IATA says SAF production is still tiny—about 0.8% of aviation fuel in 2026—despite net-zero targets. Tech supply chains: China’s optical modules and chip exports are powering global AI infrastructure buildout. Business and global links: Philippine Airlines is set to join Oneworld, expanding Southeast Asia’s reach in the alliance. Crime case: A Nadi businessman faces court over alleged importation of 2.6 tonnes of cocaine into Fiji.

Digital Economy & AI: APEC’s Eduardo Pedrosa says AI and digital cooperation are reshaping regional integration, with SMEs gaining easier market entry through platforms and new policy models. Bangladesh Economy Push: Adviser Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir outlines a new economic model targeting a $1tn economy by 2034, stressing investment growth, industrial revival, admin reform and long-term agriculture transformation. Nuclear Diplomacy Tensions: Iran’s deputy foreign minister says IAEA reporting is being used for political pressure while safeguarded sites face attacks, urging clearer legal positions on targeting. US-Iran Mediation: Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi visits Tehran with “new proposals” to help break the US-Iran stalemate. Food Security Outlook: FAO forecasts global cereal output and trade to dip in 2026/27, with stocks slightly contracting. Climate Watch: UN warns El Niño could return soon, raising risks for heat, monsoon disruption and extreme weather. Local Business Spotlight: PNC and the Fort Wayne TinCaps name Copper Spoon and Three Rivers Electric as 2026 “Going To Bat For Small Business” winners. Energy/Trade: Saskatchewan leads a China trade mission to boost canola, peas and beef sales after tariff reductions; Mosaic and potash firms monitor US tariff talks under CUSMA.

India Economy: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and PM Modi both point to India’s 7.7% FY26 growth (7.8% in Q4) as proof the economy is resilient despite global uncertainty. Middle East Tensions: New US-Iran-linked strikes and missile exchanges threaten a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, even as World Cup visas are issued for Iranian players. AI & Policy: US President Trump says the federal government may acquire shares in AI firms and share profits with Americans, while AI security startup Innefu Labs raises $30m to expand global national and cyber security work. Kosovo Politics: Kosovo heads to a third parliamentary election in 18 months amid EU integration pressure and an ongoing political impasse. Currency & Tech: RBI says a polymer currency notes proposal is still under consideration, with no decision yet. Energy & Industry: Tata Motors plans global expansion and an Iveco acquisition to push it toward the top four global commercial vehicle makers; IMFA signs a 29-year PPA for 65MW hybrid renewables under a captive model. Business & Trade: Rabobank expects tight global beef supply to keep prices firm through 2026; Namibia’s opposition questions a N$612m solar deal tied to a Chinese-linked smelter. Local Economy: A UK burger business reopens in Peterborough after losing its licence and facing arson attacks.

Oil & Gas Local Content: Sabah’s transport and industrial ministry will take a Sabah OGSE 5-year roadmap to the state cabinet, aiming to boost meaningful participation by local firms in the oil and gas services sector. Anti-Corruption Trial: Malaysia’s MACC witness told a court he didn’t know whether a former Penang chief minister-linked director secretly influenced bids for the Penang undersea tunnel and roads project. Middle East Diplomacy: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun sharply criticized Hezbollah and Iran in a CNN interview, saying Lebanon is being used as a “bargaining chip” and that Lebanese people are “fed up” with war. Regional Integration: SADC adopted legal instruments to speed trade, tourism travel (a tourism univisa), and pooled medicine procurement, while also pushing progress on reviving the SADC Tribunal. Disaster Loans (US): The SBA reminded Texas businesses, nonprofits and residents to apply by July 6 for low-interest disaster loans after April–May storms and tornadoes; similar SBA loan programs were announced for Montana’s Crow Tribe, Fort Peck Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes, and Arizona’s San Carlos Apache after winter storms and flooding. Business & Jobs: Canada’s May jobs report showed strong gains (88,000 jobs) and a lower unemployment rate, while an AI-focused report flagged common causes of global enterprise overpayments.

India-US Trade Talks: The US Trade Representative team is in India to speed up a long-running trade deal, with discussions now focused on customs rules and non-tariff barriers. RBI NRI Push: India’s central bank proposed doubling the NRI limit to 10% in listed companies and raising the overall cap to 24%, aiming to make it easier for overseas Indians to invest. South Korea AI Profit Sharing: Labor Minister Kim Young-hoon urged big tech firms to share “excess” AI windfall profits with suppliers and workers, after helping broker a Samsung chip-worker pay deal. US-Russia Economic Dialogue: Business leaders met in St. Petersburg, with the US stressing cooperation depends on ending the Ukraine war, while Russia pointed to sanctions as the main drag on trade. Global Steel Warning: The OECD says subsidized steel capacity is swelling worldwide, projecting 745m tonnes of excess capacity by 2028 and warning it distorts markets. Cuba Sanctions: The US imposed sanctions on Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel and others, escalating pressure amid threats of military action and an energy blockade. Brunei Cabinet Reshuffle: Brunei’s ruler announced a reshuffle, appointing two younger sons to key ministerial roles as succession planning signals.

Somalia Crisis: Gunfire and mortars hit Mogadishu as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud clings to power after his term expired, with opposition leaders alleging constitutional violations and residents fleeing ahead of protests. Global Economy: Fitch warns global growth will slow in 2026 as an Iran-linked oil shock lifts prices, squeezes households, and hits demand, though AI investment offers some support. AI & Data Centers: Amazon engineers criticized the company’s AI data-center spending as Seattle weighs a one-year moratorium on new AI-focused projects; meanwhile Schneider Electric says Malaysia’s next AI infrastructure push must be planned around power, cooling, water, and renewables. Canada AI Policy: Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled Canada’s AI strategy, drawing mixed reactions from business, labour, and opposition over safety, privacy, and worker impacts. Middle East Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan spoke with Qatar’s PM about cooperation and US-Iran mediation to reduce escalation. Business & Jobs: South Africa’s labour minister stepped in to pause Pick n Pay retrenchments and push talks to save 22,000 jobs. Tech & Trade: Hong Kong overtook Switzerland in cross-border wealth management, while China and the EU trade tensions continue to shape capital flows.

Gambling Oversight: Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority says it will end operator self-reporting by forcing all licensed betting firms to integrate with a central system that tracks every transaction in real time. Libya–China Diplomacy: Libya’s acting foreign minister met China’s ambassador to deepen cooperation across sectors and coordinate positions in regional and global forums. North Africa Trade: Libya and Tunisia began implementing their free trade deal, using electronic certificates of origin, reactivating customs crossings, and adding anti-smuggling and border-security measures. Armenia–Turkey Normalization: Turkish President Erdoğan and Armenian PM Pashinyan discussed steps toward direct trade, including technical preparations and plans to rehabilitate a key rail link. EU Support for Armenia: The EU is preparing financial help and preferential trade terms for Armenia amid Russia-linked economic restrictions. UK Business Pressure: The CBI warns the cost of doing business is nearing a “tipping point,” citing record business tax take and weak profitability. Philippines Senate Shake-up: Sen. Loren Legarda insisted she hasn’t resigned as Senate president pro tempore, while Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian said he will preside over VP Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. Obama Center Opens: Chicago’s Obama Presidential Center is set to open June 19, with costs now put at about $850m and up to 600,000 annual visitors. Health Funding Accountability: Papua New Guinea’s health minister clarified Port Moresby General Hospital’s level in the national referral system after parliamentary questions. Agriculture Reform in Malawi: Malawi unveiled a recovery plan shifting from subsidies to commercial farming, solar irrigation, mega farms, and agro-processing to boost growth and exports.

Philippines Senate Power Struggle: A new majority bloc declared all Senate leadership posts vacant, leaving the Senate presidency effectively up in the air, while Senate president pro tempore Sherwin Gatchalian ordered no official Senate business on June 4 and authorized staff to work from home to “preserve neutrality.” Middle East Energy Shock: The IMF says Saudi Arabia is proving resilient amid the war’s disruption, citing rerouted oil via the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, even as growth momentum is hit. US Forced-Labor Tariffs: The Trump administration proposed up to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 economies under a forced-labor trade probe, drawing pushback from partners and raising supply-chain confusion for businesses. Global Trade Reality Check: DHL’s CEO argues global trade is adapting to volatility rather than collapsing, even as tariffs and conflict keep reshaping routes and planning. Ukraine-Russia Economic Forum Under Fire: Ukrainian drones struck a St. Petersburg oil terminal, disrupting airport operations as Russia’s economic forum opens. Regional Security Pivot: Solomon Islands’ new PM says it will review its 2022 security pact with China amid US and Australia concerns. UK-Morocco Trade Push: Britain’s trade minister met Moroccan officials and businesses, aiming to double bilateral trade and expand investment tied to World Cup 2030. Commodities Watch: A strong Brazil corn harvest could boost global competition for US supplies. Workplace Health & Growth: New reporting links toxic workplace culture and poor mental health to lower benefits use and reduced innovation.

US-Trade Pressure: The U.S. is moving ahead with Section 301 scrutiny of India over forced-labour import concerns, with possible extra tariffs up to 12.5% on affected goods. Middle East Risk to Markets: Oil is rising for a third straight day as fighting in the region keeps traders on edge, while stocks get a boost from AI optimism; cryptocurrencies slid amid liquidity chatter. Ukraine War Update: Russia launched another heavy wave of drones and missiles, killing 23 and wounding 130, as Zelenskiy warned of possible follow-on strikes. Philippines Politics & Security: Police plan heightened Senate-area visibility amid impeachment tensions around Vice President Sara Duterte, while the Senate and legal process continue to churn. Australia Economy: Australia’s growth slowed to 0.3% in the March quarter as cyclones disrupted exports and net trade dragged GDP, though business investment rose. Business Climate: South Africa’s business confidence dipped as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and inflation fears returned. Energy Transition (Malaysia): Malaysia highlighted partnerships across utilities, developers and finance as it pushes its energy transition from plans to execution. Local Costs (Georgia): Georgia bus operators brace for higher expenses as the state gas tax suspension ends. Nepal-India Talks: Rabi Lamichhane met India’s home and external affairs ministers, focusing on development ties and people-to-people links. Sports Business (NFL): A.J. Brown’s Eagles-to-Patriots trade ends a long saga, with teammates split between relief and regret.

AI Power & Data Centers: Schneider Electric unveiled an 800-volt DC “sidecar” system to move power conversion closer to AI racks, aiming to cut losses and boost efficiency for next-gen NVIDIA GPU workloads. Tech for Enterprise AI: Snowflake launched Horizon Context to map enterprise data with business definitions, lineage, and governance so AI and analytics can pull the right info safely. Labor Market Watch: U.S. job openings jumped to the highest in about two years, but Reuters reports hiring stayed cautious as Iran-war uncertainty and higher energy costs weigh on confidence. Trade & Tariffs: India and the U.S. say they’re near finishing the first tranche of a trade deal; separately, the Trump administration proposed 25% tariffs on Brazil. Regional Security: Lithuania’s defense minister said the next U.S. troop rotation is “under review,” potentially leaving the country without an armored battalion for the first time since 2020. Crime & Politics in Peru: Ahead of Peru’s runoff, AP reports extortion and killings have surged, hitting small businesses and shaping daily life. Business & Local Governance: Canada urged the U.S. and Mexico to renew their free-trade pact for 16 more years; in the U.S., a Minnesota business owner filed for a state Senate seat.