AGP Executive Report

Aviation Demand Watch: IATA says total air passenger demand fell 2.2% year-on-year in May 2026, with the Middle East’s 28.4% drop dragging the global figure, even as load factors hit record highs. Energy & Trade: Shell forecasts global LNG demand up 65% by 2050, with Asia and data centres driving growth, while Hormuz disruption continues to reshape supply. AI & Education: The NSF-backed Presidential AI Challenge crowned a North Carolina teacher-led project as national champion, highlighting hands-on AI learning for K-12 students. Policy & Governance: Qatar’s foreign ministry says U.S. envoys’ Doha visit is tied to mediator talks on Iran and Lebanon, with technical negotiations ongoing despite escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Business & Compliance: Bulgaria’s tourism reforms aim to cut administrative red tape and launch new financing tools worth nearly EUR 300m, while a separate Bulgarian dispute targets alleged crash-barrier procurement links to GERB figures. Regional Development: Zimbabwe commissions the Wanezi Dam irrigation and piped water system, framing dams as engines of rural jobs and food security. Sports Business: Ja Morant is traded to Portland in a major roster shake-up, while Florida also makes a goaltending move by acquiring Jacob Markstrom.

US-Iran Diplomacy: The US and Iran digitally signed a peace MoU aimed at ending their conflict, with Donald Trump warning of renewed attacks if commitments aren’t met, as leaders also pushed for an immediate Lebanon ceasefire at the G7. India Clean Mobility: Delhi’s new EV policy is set to cut emissions, speed vehicle replacement, and focus on commercial and freight transport, with ministers saying it will reinforce India’s clean-mobility lead. Trade Deal Momentum: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says the India-US trade agreement is in the final phase, with only a few issues left. UAE Shipping & Energy: AD Ports Group and IRH Global Trading signed an MoU to explore marine fuel bunkering and alternative fuels at Khalifa Port, including LNG, biofuels and methanol. UK Tax Crackdown: HMRC named 150+ UK businesses and individuals for deliberate tax non-compliance, including London firms hit with millions in penalties. Ghana Health Push: President Mahama urged traditional leaders to back Ghana’s Free Primary Healthcare plan by driving routine visits to community health centres. Tech & Privacy: WhatsApp begins global username reservations to protect users’ phone numbers, adding a “username key” for first-time contacts. Sports Business: Ja Morant is traded from Memphis to Portland for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray, a major roster shake-up ahead of free agency.

EU–China Trade Talks: The EU and China agreed to hold three months of minister-level talks to cool tensions over a €360bn trade imbalance, with a push for “tangible results” by an October meeting in Beijing. Global Supply Chains & Air Cargo: IATA reported May global air cargo demand rose 6.0% year-on-year, with Asia-Pacific up 8.0%, while Middle East carriers saw an 8.9% contraction amid war-related impacts. Senegal Constitutional Power Shift: Senegal’s National Assembly passed a constitutional reform that curbs the president’s powers, and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye says a national referendum will follow. Serbia Election Maneuver: President Aleksandar Vucic says early elections will be held in the next 3–4 months and that he will resign ahead of the vote, a move critics see as a path back to power as prime minister. Malaysia Economic Moves: Malaysia advanced halal import substitution via its HIMP 2030 plan, backed subsidy rationalisation with targeted support for MSMEs, and highlighted new investment MoUs tied to semiconductors, AI, renewables and aerospace. Tech, Markets & Policy: The U.S. may revise core PCE inflation lower after planned methodology changes, while BIS warns AI could raise risks for the global economy. Business & Local Growth: Apple Maps ads are set to expand in the U.S. and Canada, and India’s Cabinet approved an extra Rs 30,000 crore for NIIF to crowd in infrastructure and global capital.

Telecom Deal: BT and Verizon struck a deal to merge their international businesses, with Verizon paying BT a $625m equalisation payment and the combined unit set to be UK-headquartered, aiming to reshape global connectivity while BT cuts costs. Trade & Security: China blacklisted 20 Japanese entities over alleged dual-use risks, requiring exporters to submit risk assessments—another sign rare-earth and tech supply chains are getting tighter. Drug Enforcement: Nigeria’s NDLEA arrested a businesswoman at Lagos airport after cocaine was found hidden in luggage bound for Beijing, alongside a separate large cannabis seizure worth billions. Regional Investment Push: Malaysia reported RM1.4bn in approved investments for 50 projects in early 2026 and said LRT3’s current capacity can meet ridership projections through 2040, while Malaysia-EU free trade talks are targeting a 2027 finish. AI & Industry: South Korea unveiled major chip and AI investment plans, and Taiwan’s “two-speed” economy showed growth driven mainly by semiconductors while traditional manufacturers lagged. SME Focus: Myanmar marked World MSME Day with renewed calls for value-added agro-based manufacturing and better access to finance and markets. Local Economy & Governance: Kenya’s President Ruto assented to the County Allocation of Revenue Bill 2026, clearing the way for 47 counties to receive 2026/27 funding.

APEC Tourism: Ministers met in Macau under “Digital Innovation, Collaborative Empowerment,” pushing connected, tech-enabled tourism across the Asia-Pacific. Education & Innovation: University of Macau will expand its research network with four new institutes (including AI and Smart City) to speed tech transfer and diversify Macau’s economy. World Cup Fallout: South Korea’s coach Hong Myung-bo resigned after the team’s early exit, as President Lee Jae Myung demanded investigations into “personnel failures” and sports administration. NBA Trades: The Hornets sent Miles Bridges to the Suns in a second big deal this week, swapping in Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neale plus draft picks. Global Finance Risks: The BIS warned that public debt, financial fragilities, and the sustainability of the AI boom are raising global risks, urging coordinated fiscal and monetary discipline. Macro Watch (Philippines): The BSP forecast a narrower current-account deficit for 2026-27, while analysts warn growth may stay sluggish amid weak confidence and tight policy. Water Security (Saudi): Egypt’s water minister joined Saudi Water Week discussions on desalination, reuse, and digital solutions for water security.

Serbia Politics: President Aleksandar Vučić told supporters in Belgrade he will resign “within weeks,” as anti-corruption protests tied to the 2024 Novi Sad railway station disaster keep pressure on his rule and demand snap elections. Middle East Ceasefire Strain: The US and Iran traded missile and drone strikes again, each accusing the other of violating a ceasefire, while Bahrain and Kuwait reported attacks and maritime risks rose near the Strait of Hormuz. Korean Peninsula: South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung vowed to resolve the North Korea abductee issue through “dialogue and cooperation,” warning it must not be buried in history. Tech & Investment: South Korea’s presidential office says Samsung and SK hynix will unveil major investment plans this week, with expectations of huge chip-sector spending. Trade & Logistics: Pakistan designated Taftan railway station as a land customs facility to speed Iran-Pakistan rail trade and cut clearance delays. Global Courts: The ICC ordered freezing money seized from former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte after his arrest, as prosecutors seek access to additional seized items. Business & Health: Sri Lanka’s dengue outbreak has reached epidemic levels with 50,000+ cases, but critics say the government’s response came too late and focused too narrowly on high-profile clean-ups. Humanitarian Response: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez inspected earthquake collection centers and coordinated aid distribution after rescues in La Guaira.

AI & Cybersecurity: OpenAI says it’s restricting release of its new GPT-5.6 Sol model at the Trump administration’s request, while rival Anthropic says the administration approved a limited release of its strongest cybersecurity model after earlier restrictions. Trade & Tariffs: Trump threatens 100% tariffs on any European country that imposes a digital services tax on US tech firms, escalating a fresh US-EU trade clash. Earthquakes & Humanitarian Response: Venezuela is welcoming 1,600 international rescue teams as the search continues after twin quakes, with local and diaspora groups also organizing donations. Regional Diplomacy: Kenya deported Somalia’s deputy prime minister over alleged passport irregularities, a rare high-level diplomatic flare-up amid close security and trade ties. Energy, Tech & Jobs: Malaysia’s Sarawak plans a low-carbon, tech-led shift—using AI, renewable energy and carbon trading via forests as carbon sinks. Politics & Governance: Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic says he will resign within weeks and call early elections after student-led anti-corruption protests. Small Business & Finance: The US SBA opened low-interest disaster loans for small businesses and nonprofits hit by drought in parts of Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Mississippi. Housing & Public Services: UK housing plans reportedly include a state-owned developer to boost building rates, while Bangladesh launched a 24-hour ferry service at Mongla Port to cut commuter risk.

Middle East Tensions: Iran and the US traded strikes after Washington accused Tehran of attacking a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh fears for the ceasefire and shipping lanes. Trade Deals & Diplomacy: The Philippines’ President Marcos heads to Canada to push a free trade agreement, while the US says the India-US trade deal is in the final stretch with only a few issues left, mainly legal language. Regional Security & Economics: Putin and Lukashenko met to review regional security and economic cooperation under the Union State framework. Global Business & Investment: Sri Lanka’s President says the goal is to turn the country into an export-oriented manufacturing economy, targeting major growth in coconut and food-and-beverage exports. UAE Trade Expansion: UAE is selected to begin preparatory discussions to join the CPTPP, signaling a push for deeper market access. Local Economy & Support: Hawaiʻi launched a Kona Low Business Recovery Grant Program with $475,000 for eligible non-agricultural firms hit by March storms. Sports Piracy Crackdown: The US DOJ seized nearly 400 domains tied to illegal FIFA World Cup streaming in a coordinated anti-piracy action.

Earthquake Response in Venezuela: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez says international rescuers are already arriving and being deployed across the hardest-hit areas after the quake death toll reached 920, with 3,360 injured. Global Shipping & Energy: Reports say a vessel was hit near the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude up more than 2% and raising shipping and fuel-price jitters. AI Tech Race: A new report argues China’s AI progress is shifting the fight from raw model power to affordability and global adoption, while the U.S. tries to tighten an AI-and-chip coalition. Trade & Markets: Canada’s growth outlook was cut after recession talk and uncertainty around the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal weighed on business optimism. Migration Policy: South Africa’s inter-ministerial committee reiterated June 30 will be a normal working day despite planned protests. Corruption Probes in India: Tamil Nadu’s anti-graft agency raided former DMK minister E.V. Velu, while India’s ED targeted Karnataka excise officials, including a minister’s brother-in-law, in alleged bribery networks. Business & Innovation: Malaysia launched a portal to help people check unclaimed insurance/takaful, and MIGHT showcased a low-altitude economy mini sandbox aimed at drones and air mobility.

Philippines Accountability: Ateneo de Manila University President Roberto “Bobby” Yap appeared before the NBI over the drowning deaths of student-athletes Rene Baterbonia and Divine Adili, saying he met families to apologize after providing documents and testimony. Indonesia Youth Safety: TikTok and YouTube deactivated about 4.7 million child accounts under 16 in Indonesia after government curbs, as officials check compliance. Global Drugs Watch: A UN report says cocaine production and meth seizures are surging, with heroin supply down and new synthetic opioids filling gaps. Business & Trade: India’s Piyush Goyal says a US trade deal won’t start until Washington guarantees tariff advantage for India; banks also raise forecasts as Chinese EV exports accelerate. Energy Costs: Fiji’s finance minister expects major fuel price cuts from July as global oil prices ease after US-Iran de-escalation and Hormuz reopening. Cyber & Resilience: Sri Lanka’s Sysco LABS joined a SLASSCOM forum on turning cybersecurity into business resilience. Regional Development: Malaysia launched a RM185m advanced packaging RDICE programme to boost its share of the global market. Disaster Impact: Venezuela’s twin quakes killed at least 235 and injured thousands, with major economic losses feared.

Energy & Industry Policy: Malaysia says Petronas fuel supplies should stay stable until August, with a crisis task force monitoring prices, smuggling and crude sourcing beyond West Asia. Space Economy Skills: Malaysia’s MOSTI lays out DAN2030/MSE2030/SISP2030 to grow local talent for the “new space economy,” aiming for the sector to reach at least 1% of GDP by 2030. TVET for Jobs: Perak will expand TVET so youth can plug into growth zones like the Automotive High Technology Valley, pushing training as a route to entrepreneurship. Budget & Fiscal Moves: Pakistan’s President Zardari signs the Finance Act 2026-27, setting the Rs18 trillion federal budget to take effect July 1, including 7% salary and pension increases. Ukraine Energy Recovery: At URC 2026 in Gdańsk, Ukraine plans energy deals worth over €1B to support winter readiness, including financing for nuclear fuel and grid upgrades. Disaster & Human Impact: Venezuela’s deadly earthquake toll rises, with rescuers searching for survivors and hundreds trapped after twin quakes. Food Safety & Education: Bangladesh warns of strict action for officials serving spoiled food in primary schools as the mid-day meal rollout expands from July. Trade & Retail Compliance: Sri Lanka’s retail ministry signals tighter cooperation with retailers while flagging concerns about unregistered online sellers and tax compliance.

Disaster Response: Venezuela declared a state of emergency after back-to-back earthquakes (7.2 and 7.5) killed at least 32 people and injured about 700, with collapsed buildings reported around Caracas and La Guaira and the main airport shut. Energy Diplomacy: India kicked off the 11th BRICS Energy Ministers’ meeting in Gurugram, pushing “Energy for All” and grid resilience as renewables scale up. Global Perceptions: A Pew survey found trust in the US has fallen sharply across key allies, with skepticism also rising toward Trump’s handling of world affairs. AI & Consumer Trust: A new digital trust report says 52% of consumers will pay more for brands transparent about how they use AI with their data, while many have already changed spending due to data concerns. Sustainable Power Deals: Malaysia’s energy transition push continues under the LTMS-PIP, with electricity deliveries and revenue reported, while feasibility work for new interconnections is underway. Finance & Markets: Brazil plans up to 5 billion yuan in its first panda bond issuance to deepen access to China’s domestic debt market. Business & Innovation: Bank ABC’s ABC Labs won a Global Finance innovation award for AI and digital transformation efforts. Clean Water Campaign: charity: water launched “Football Takes Water” to fund 21 water projects during the World Cup.

Islamic Finance Push: Malaysia says it’s building a fuller Islamic finance ecosystem to attract investors, including a planned exploratory trip to Central Asia and closer links with Russia. ASEAN-US Trade Ties: Johor’s JS-SEZ is pitching deeper engagement with American firms, banking on digital infrastructure and cross-border connectivity. Aviation Supply Chain Fix: IATA flags four priorities—better visibility, aftermarket access, data/AI use, and workforce capacity—to tackle delivery delays and parts shortages. Middle East Trade Security: China’s foreign minister urges normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to protect global supply chains as tankers resume movement. OPEC Fund Resilience: Saudi finance chief Al-Jadaan argues development now means building economies resilient to global shocks, with DFIs central to that effort. UAE SME Support: RAKBANK launches “She Means Business” to help women entrepreneurs with community, tech know-how, and business growth. Global Markets: Tech-led selloff fears ease as stocks rebound; oil slips as Hormuz traffic improves. Housing Policy (US): A bipartisan housing affordability bill heads to President Trump, aiming to boost supply and curb investor distortions. World Cup Business Debate: FIFA’s hydration-break plan faces backlash as Infantino insists it’s “purely sporting,” not commercial.

U.S.-India Trade Talks: India and the US opened high-level talks to salvage a revised interim trade deal after US tariff changes upended an earlier February framework, with a July 24 deadline looming. Middle East Diplomacy: Iran’s president told Pakistan that Tehran’s missile program is non-negotiable, while Pakistan’s leaders said a US-Iran MoU makes no mention of ballistic missiles—keeping the focus on ending the war. AI Governance & Growth: China’s premier said Beijing will keep participating in global AI governance and push innovation-led cooperation, warning that rules must keep pace with AI risks. UK Politics & Business: Labour leadership rivals are weighing whether to challenge Andy Burnham’s path to No. 10, with MPs seeking clarity on economic policy. Energy & Investment: South Africa’s energy “one-stop shop” push aims to cut regulatory bottlenecks to speed up power projects and restore investor confidence. Brexit Aftershock: A decade on, UK businesses say Brexit still hurts trade with EU partners, despite talk of a July summit to reset ties. Tech & Markets: A sell-off hit AI-linked memory stocks after South Korea market jitters, while Malaysia’s ringgit edged lower amid expectations of higher US rates. Urban Climate: Forty mayors signed a pact to shape how data centers are built and run, pushing sustainability and city resource protection. Local Environment: Subic Bay kicked off a weeklong Arbor Day drive linking forest conservation with local crafts and community cleanup.

U.S. Economy & Politics: President Trump made a swing-state stop at a Mack Trucks facility in Pennsylvania, trying to steer attention back to jobs and costs as Iran-peace fallout and gasoline prices loom over the midterms. U.S.–Iran Diplomacy: Iran’s President Pezeshkian told Pakistan the country’s defense capabilities are “non-negotiable” and rejected any US role in how unfrozen funds are used, as a 60-day sanctions waiver follows Switzerland talks. Middle East Ceasefire: Lebanon’s President Aoun said US officials reaffirmed support for state sovereignty and the ceasefire, while negotiations with Israel could be decisive. Regional Trade & Investment: Malaysia said foreign investors weigh fundamentals more than election speculation, while highlighting UAE-linked energy and logistics ties; separate talks in Dubai focused on expanding trade with Canada’s Saskatchewan in food, fertilisers, energy and critical minerals. Humanitarian Crisis: Yemen saw fresh internal displacement driven by insecurity, economic strain and disasters, according to IOM. NBA Business: The Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster trade to Miami has Bucks fans split between grief and “move on,” with the draft looming. UK Politics: Britain’s PM Keir Starmer resigned, setting up a Labour leadership fight and raising fresh questions about Brexit’s long shadow.

UK Politics: Keir Starmer announced he will resign as prime minister and Labour leader less than two years after taking power, with Andy Burnham widely seen as the frontrunner as nominations open July 9. Judicial Accountability: South Korea’s former justice minister Park Sung-jae was sentenced to 25 years over his role in the 2024 martial law bid. Energy & Trade Corridors: Malaysia’s transport minister said long-term oil, gas and diesel supply deals for 20 years can stabilize logistics, while also stressing the Strait of Malacca’s importance for global shipping and energy flows. Public Health Clash: Kenya’s health minister was found in contempt of court over continued work on a controversial US-backed Ebola quarantine facility. Business & Tech: Mavenir unveiled an agentic service assurance framework aimed at automating complex network operations. Global Markets & Risk: A report flagged rising stress in Australia’s smaller businesses as insolvencies diverge across regulators. Sports Business: The Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster trade to the Miami Heat continues to dominate fan and media chatter.