AGP Executive Report

India-US Trade Talks: The US Trade Representative team is in India to speed up a long-running trade deal, with discussions now focused on customs rules and non-tariff barriers. RBI NRI Push: India’s central bank proposed doubling the NRI limit to 10% in listed companies and raising the overall cap to 24%, aiming to make it easier for overseas Indians to invest. South Korea AI Profit Sharing: Labor Minister Kim Young-hoon urged big tech firms to share “excess” AI windfall profits with suppliers and workers, after helping broker a Samsung chip-worker pay deal. US-Russia Economic Dialogue: Business leaders met in St. Petersburg, with the US stressing cooperation depends on ending the Ukraine war, while Russia pointed to sanctions as the main drag on trade. Global Steel Warning: The OECD says subsidized steel capacity is swelling worldwide, projecting 745m tonnes of excess capacity by 2028 and warning it distorts markets. Cuba Sanctions: The US imposed sanctions on Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel and others, escalating pressure amid threats of military action and an energy blockade. Brunei Cabinet Reshuffle: Brunei’s ruler announced a reshuffle, appointing two younger sons to key ministerial roles as succession planning signals.

Somalia Crisis: Gunfire and mortars hit Mogadishu as President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud clings to power after his term expired, with opposition leaders alleging constitutional violations and residents fleeing ahead of protests. Global Economy: Fitch warns global growth will slow in 2026 as an Iran-linked oil shock lifts prices, squeezes households, and hits demand, though AI investment offers some support. AI & Data Centers: Amazon engineers criticized the company’s AI data-center spending as Seattle weighs a one-year moratorium on new AI-focused projects; meanwhile Schneider Electric says Malaysia’s next AI infrastructure push must be planned around power, cooling, water, and renewables. Canada AI Policy: Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled Canada’s AI strategy, drawing mixed reactions from business, labour, and opposition over safety, privacy, and worker impacts. Middle East Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan spoke with Qatar’s PM about cooperation and US-Iran mediation to reduce escalation. Business & Jobs: South Africa’s labour minister stepped in to pause Pick n Pay retrenchments and push talks to save 22,000 jobs. Tech & Trade: Hong Kong overtook Switzerland in cross-border wealth management, while China and the EU trade tensions continue to shape capital flows.

Gambling Oversight: Kenya’s Gambling Regulatory Authority says it will end operator self-reporting by forcing all licensed betting firms to integrate with a central system that tracks every transaction in real time. Libya–China Diplomacy: Libya’s acting foreign minister met China’s ambassador to deepen cooperation across sectors and coordinate positions in regional and global forums. North Africa Trade: Libya and Tunisia began implementing their free trade deal, using electronic certificates of origin, reactivating customs crossings, and adding anti-smuggling and border-security measures. Armenia–Turkey Normalization: Turkish President Erdoğan and Armenian PM Pashinyan discussed steps toward direct trade, including technical preparations and plans to rehabilitate a key rail link. EU Support for Armenia: The EU is preparing financial help and preferential trade terms for Armenia amid Russia-linked economic restrictions. UK Business Pressure: The CBI warns the cost of doing business is nearing a “tipping point,” citing record business tax take and weak profitability. Philippines Senate Shake-up: Sen. Loren Legarda insisted she hasn’t resigned as Senate president pro tempore, while Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian said he will preside over VP Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. Obama Center Opens: Chicago’s Obama Presidential Center is set to open June 19, with costs now put at about $850m and up to 600,000 annual visitors. Health Funding Accountability: Papua New Guinea’s health minister clarified Port Moresby General Hospital’s level in the national referral system after parliamentary questions. Agriculture Reform in Malawi: Malawi unveiled a recovery plan shifting from subsidies to commercial farming, solar irrigation, mega farms, and agro-processing to boost growth and exports.

Philippines Senate Power Struggle: A new majority bloc declared all Senate leadership posts vacant, leaving the Senate presidency effectively up in the air, while Senate president pro tempore Sherwin Gatchalian ordered no official Senate business on June 4 and authorized staff to work from home to “preserve neutrality.” Middle East Energy Shock: The IMF says Saudi Arabia is proving resilient amid the war’s disruption, citing rerouted oil via the East-West pipeline and Red Sea ports, even as growth momentum is hit. US Forced-Labor Tariffs: The Trump administration proposed up to 12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 economies under a forced-labor trade probe, drawing pushback from partners and raising supply-chain confusion for businesses. Global Trade Reality Check: DHL’s CEO argues global trade is adapting to volatility rather than collapsing, even as tariffs and conflict keep reshaping routes and planning. Ukraine-Russia Economic Forum Under Fire: Ukrainian drones struck a St. Petersburg oil terminal, disrupting airport operations as Russia’s economic forum opens. Regional Security Pivot: Solomon Islands’ new PM says it will review its 2022 security pact with China amid US and Australia concerns. UK-Morocco Trade Push: Britain’s trade minister met Moroccan officials and businesses, aiming to double bilateral trade and expand investment tied to World Cup 2030. Commodities Watch: A strong Brazil corn harvest could boost global competition for US supplies. Workplace Health & Growth: New reporting links toxic workplace culture and poor mental health to lower benefits use and reduced innovation.

US-Trade Pressure: The U.S. is moving ahead with Section 301 scrutiny of India over forced-labour import concerns, with possible extra tariffs up to 12.5% on affected goods. Middle East Risk to Markets: Oil is rising for a third straight day as fighting in the region keeps traders on edge, while stocks get a boost from AI optimism; cryptocurrencies slid amid liquidity chatter. Ukraine War Update: Russia launched another heavy wave of drones and missiles, killing 23 and wounding 130, as Zelenskiy warned of possible follow-on strikes. Philippines Politics & Security: Police plan heightened Senate-area visibility amid impeachment tensions around Vice President Sara Duterte, while the Senate and legal process continue to churn. Australia Economy: Australia’s growth slowed to 0.3% in the March quarter as cyclones disrupted exports and net trade dragged GDP, though business investment rose. Business Climate: South Africa’s business confidence dipped as Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and inflation fears returned. Energy Transition (Malaysia): Malaysia highlighted partnerships across utilities, developers and finance as it pushes its energy transition from plans to execution. Local Costs (Georgia): Georgia bus operators brace for higher expenses as the state gas tax suspension ends. Nepal-India Talks: Rabi Lamichhane met India’s home and external affairs ministers, focusing on development ties and people-to-people links. Sports Business (NFL): A.J. Brown’s Eagles-to-Patriots trade ends a long saga, with teammates split between relief and regret.

AI Power & Data Centers: Schneider Electric unveiled an 800-volt DC “sidecar” system to move power conversion closer to AI racks, aiming to cut losses and boost efficiency for next-gen NVIDIA GPU workloads. Tech for Enterprise AI: Snowflake launched Horizon Context to map enterprise data with business definitions, lineage, and governance so AI and analytics can pull the right info safely. Labor Market Watch: U.S. job openings jumped to the highest in about two years, but Reuters reports hiring stayed cautious as Iran-war uncertainty and higher energy costs weigh on confidence. Trade & Tariffs: India and the U.S. say they’re near finishing the first tranche of a trade deal; separately, the Trump administration proposed 25% tariffs on Brazil. Regional Security: Lithuania’s defense minister said the next U.S. troop rotation is “under review,” potentially leaving the country without an armored battalion for the first time since 2020. Crime & Politics in Peru: Ahead of Peru’s runoff, AP reports extortion and killings have surged, hitting small businesses and shaping daily life. Business & Local Governance: Canada urged the U.S. and Mexico to renew their free-trade pact for 16 more years; in the U.S., a Minnesota business owner filed for a state Senate seat.

Fed Independence: Jerome Powell warned against politicizing the Federal Reserve, saying democratic institutions take time to build but can be torn down fast. US Foreign Policy: Marco Rubio told lawmakers the Trump administration is reshaping foreign aid toward trade, investment and partnerships tied to US interests. India–US Trade: India and the US began fresh talks to lock in the first phase of a bilateral trade deal, with Section 301 relief and legal text still on the agenda. Colombia Election: A far-right, Trump-leaning candidate won Colombia’s first presidential round and will face a leftist senator in a June runoff, amid fraud and foreign interference claims. Hungary Power Struggle: Hungary’s new prime minister pledged constitutional changes to remove Orbán-era appointees, including the president, as the EU funds dispute looms. Business & Jobs: GE Appliances plans to reshore appliance production from China to the US, aiming to bring about 800 jobs back. Tech & Mobility: Uber CEO says the company is shifting to an open platform for robotaxis with partners. Regional Security: Sri Lanka’s Shavendra Silva called for a more cooperative, resilient global security framework as threats expand beyond war.

US-Iran Tensions & Energy: The US and Iran traded strikes amid a fragile ceasefire, with markets watching oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk. Middle East Diplomacy: Japan’s PM urged “free and safe passage” through Hormuz in talks with Iran’s president, while Kuwait met the IAEA to stress nuclear safety and peaceful cooperation. Israel-Gaza Fallout in Europe: France barred Israel’s government from EUROSATORY and limited Israeli firms to defensive displays, escalating political pressure around defense trade. Asia Security Spat: China hit back at Japan’s defense minister over “baseless” claims as both sides trade accusations over military transparency. Myanmar-India Links: Modi met Myanmar’s president Min Aung Hlaing, focusing on border security and trade. AI & Regulation: Florida sued OpenAI and Sam Altman over claims ChatGPT risks were concealed; Merck is also exploring using its COVID antiviral molnupiravir for Ebola in Congo. Global Trade: Bangladesh weighs the impact of LDC graduation on export access, while Mercosur–Canada talks advanced toward a free trade deal. Labor & Politics: Nigeria’s governors forum floated a new N100,000 minimum wage amid hardship. Sports Business: The Browns finalized a blockbuster trade sending Myles Garrett to the Rams for Jared Verse and picks.

China-AI Rules: China issued sweeping new outbound-investment rules tightening control of deals involving Chinese investors, tech, data and national security; they take effect July 1 and raise compliance risk for global investors in sensitive sectors. Korea-Africa Diplomacy: South Korea hosted its first ministerial meeting with 50 African countries in Seoul to boost cooperation on supply-chain disruptions, energy and food security. Colombia Election: Colombia’s presidential vote heads to a June 21 runoff after no candidate won a majority; far-right Abelardo de la Espriella led first-round results, with Ivan Cepeda second. Iran-US Escalation: West Asia tensions flared as Iran’s IRGC said it targeted a US base and the US announced fresh strikes on Iranian military sites, adding pressure to global energy markets. South Korea Consumer Watch: Seoul says more than half of users of overseas lodging platforms reported financial losses, pushing for tighter oversight over misleading pricing and “dark patterns.” Nigeria Business & Energy: Nigeria’s business groups say reforms haven’t yet translated into felt gains as inflation, naira weakness and high energy costs persist; separate reporting highlights heavy diesel spending by firms. AI Talent Push (Korea): KAIST launched a College of AI Vision to train next-gen researchers and build a responsible AI ecosystem. Kenya Fuel Lesson: A Kenyan accounting body argues the fuel crisis shows deeper dependence on imported refined products and global oil volatility. Malaysia Royal Reminder: Malaysia’s king urged political leaders to avoid provocation on royalty, race and religion and warned against social media slander amplified by AI.

Nigerian Opposition Shake-Up: Peter Obi confirmed he’ll run for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election, deepening fractures in the opposition and boosting President Tinubu’s re-election odds. EU Sanctions & Gaza Politics: The EU sanctioned Hamas political bureau leaders, saying they bear responsibility for violence, while Hamas condemned the move as biased. Ukraine War & Security: Ukraine detained a State Border Service official and a drone-company owner over an alleged $1m bribe extortion scheme. Middle East Diplomacy & Iran Talks: Iran’s parliament member says the US has accepted 10 of 14 clauses in a potential deal, with Hormuz and uranium enrichment still non-negotiable. US-Iran Tensions & Trade: Mexico and Russia plan talks on SWIFT alternatives to keep dollar-free trade moving. Global Markets: Markets stayed focused on sticky inflation and Middle East-driven energy shocks, keeping central banks cautious. Aviation Disruption Risk: US airline and business groups warned that halting customs processing at major airports could cause nationwide travel and cargo chaos. Sports & Logistics: South Africa’s World Cup charter was delayed by a visa paperwork fiasco, with the sports minister blaming the football association. South Asia Governance: Hungary’s PM set a midnight deadline for the president to resign, escalating a constitutional standoff. Energy & Policy: Pakistan’s energy minister denied ending electricity subsidies for protected consumers, citing expanded coverage and a QR registration system. Business & Tech: UAE firms say pandemic-era resilience came from reforms, digital tools, and more flexible models.

ASEAN Digital Push: ASEAN says negotiations on the region’s first comprehensive digital economy pact (DEFA) are finished, clearing the way for signing in November and aiming to lift the bloc’s digital economy from a projected $1T by 2030 toward $2T. Defense Tech & Trade: Malaysia’s defence minister says it will consider arms procurement only from partners willing to share and transfer technology, as he meets counterparts at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Regional Connectivity: Indonesia, Malaysia and Penang-linked logistics partners signed cooperation to strengthen cargo flows across an ASEAN–East Asia corridor, with plans to link ports and inland clearance systems. China-EU Talks: China and the EU are discussing a trade-and-investment consultation mechanism, with Beijing warning against unilateral restrictions. Elections & AI Risks: A UK think tank warns of a “democratic emergency” after polling found many voters saw election deepfakes ahead of local contests. US Health Update: Trump’s physician says the president is in “excellent health” and “fully fit” after a recent exam. Space Internet: Amazon launched 29 new Project Kuiper satellites to expand global broadband, especially for remote areas. South Africa Governance: Ramaphosa received the second interim Madlanga Commission report on criminality and corruption in the justice system.

Global Trade & Logistics: IATA says global air cargo demand rose 4% year-on-year in April, powered by Asia-linked trade, even as Middle East carriers saw a sharp demand drop and jet fuel costs jumped. Central Banking & Finance: Serbia and China’s central banks signed a new five-year EUR 630m currency swap, aiming to bolster financial stability and deepen trade ties. Energy & Cost Pressures: Serbia’s energy ministry-backed push highlights “energy efficiency first” while planning major state investment (EUR 14.4bn, 2028-2035); Malaysia meanwhile plans “Ops Kesan 6.0” from June 1 to Aug 31 to curb profiteering tied to higher crude oil prices. Diplomacy: Canada and China held their first foreign ministers meeting in a decade, agreeing on annual talks and cooperation in areas like clean tech and energy. Workplace Safety: Kenya’s OSH push is spotlighted as the world marks World Day for Safety and Health at Work, with the ILO warning millions still die from work-related accidents and diseases. Politics & Elections (Armenia): Armenian opposition figures trade accusations ahead of June 7 polls, with claims about the 2020 war and warnings of a “Moldovan scenario” sparking upheaval. US Domestic Politics: White House says Trump is in “excellent health” after a check-up, but advised weight loss. Local Business & Community: A fire damaged Cocoa Beach’s Tiny Turtle restaurant and nearby shops, while a West Midlands commission unveiled 25 recommendations to revive the night-time economy.

Food & Energy Costs: The World Bank says West Asia conflict spillovers should be smaller than early Russia-Ukraine shocks, but food prices are still set to creep up—its food price index forecast rises 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, with wheat and maize up and driven by higher energy and fertiliser costs. Trade & Security: China’s trade promotion body (CCPIT) rejects an EU cybersecurity act revision, warning it would discriminate against firms by “non-technical risk” links to countries. Regional Trade Bloc: Russia-led EAEU leaders say they may suspend Armenia later this year over EU ambitions, urging a referendum with an option to stay in the bloc. US Federal Funding Politics: The White House proposes giving political appointees more say over federal grants, a shift scientists warn could politicize research money. Ukraine War Economy: Ukraine’s government allocates an extra UAH 10.8bn for weapons—mostly purchases plus scaling battlefield production. Middle East Shipping Risk: The US is weighing a deal with Iran that could lift the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade, with Iran stressing it trusts actions, not words. Business & Health: Cepheid opens a new Lodi warehouse to expand global molecular diagnostics supply. Eurasian Economic Forum: Uzbekistan pushes AI and digital trade integration with the EAEU as mutual trade and logistics ties deepen.

Political Accountability in the Philippines: Sen. Imee Marcos calls new plunder and graft filings against Sen. Jinggoy Estrada and other majority allies “political persecution,” arguing the timing and moves to limit online Senate participation are about power, not justice. Energy Transition & Finance in Malaysia: Bank Negara Malaysia says reserves rose to US$129.73bn at end-March 2026, while RAM Ratings keeps a positive outlook on Malaysia’s power sector as renewables hit 31% of installed capacity and grid-scale storage expands. Regional Infrastructure Push (Philippines–Japan): President Marcos meets Japan’s JICA chief in Tokyo to deepen cooperation on rail, roads, healthcare, climate action, and Mindanao, including support to manage Middle East conflict impacts. US–Iran Pressure on Oil Trade: Washington targets Iran’s military oil shipping networks with fresh sanctions, including shadow-fleet vessels and crypto-linked flows, raising pressure around Strait of Hormuz routes. Trade & Growth (India–Canada): India and Canada reaffirm CEPA talks with a year-end 2026 target, focusing on clean energy, critical minerals, agri-food, advanced manufacturing, and digital ties. Markets & Business: India’s Sensex edges up while select stocks surge; Hong Kong welcomes Creality as the first listed consumer 3D printing company; Malaysia’s Maybank and QL Resources report mixed earnings but steady investor interest.

Middle East Shock to Global Travel: IATA says West Asia conflict cut total air passenger demand 3.4% y/y in April 2026, with Middle East carriers hit hardest (down 46.6%); excluding the region, demand rose 1.2%. Oil & Markets: Fresh US-Iran strikes despite a ceasefire kept pressure on crude and global stocks, with Strait of Hormuz uncertainty weighing on the outlook. EU Enlargement Diplomacy: EU Council President António Costa will tour Western Balkan capitals ahead of the EU-Western Balkans summit, focusing on enlargement progress and regional disputes. Lebanon Security Warning: Luxembourg’s foreign minister warned Lebanon must not become “a second Gaza,” criticizing EU member states blocking tougher Israel measures. Korea Accountability Ruling: A Seoul court acquitted ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol of perjury tied to testimony in a former PM’s insurrection trial. Tech & Business AI Push: Reuters reports US firms using India AI “capability centers” to run ad and marketing in-house faster, reducing reliance on agencies. Aerospace/Defense Tech: A US company tested a rocket launcher fired from an autonomous logistics drone at Fort Rucker, signaling more lethal unmanned resupply experiments. Water & Cost Pressure: Kent households in the UK report misery and business risk after water outages, with thousands affected during a heatwave. Trade Politics in the US: Midwest town halls show working people’s anger at tariffs and trade policy, with calls for a “fair economy” blueprint.

Energy & Digital Infrastructure: Malaysia’s TNB says its RM43bn grid modernisation is being geared for data-centre demand, cutting connection timelines via its “Green Lane Pathway” from 36 months to as little as 12, and using a cluster-based transmission strategy with Johor as a key growth corridor. Healthcare Tech: Mevion Medical Systems has signed to supply Vietnam’s first proton therapy system to Tam Anh General Hospital, aiming for late-2027 operations after regulatory approvals. Climate: A UN and Met Office report warns global temperatures will hit near-record highs in the next five years, with Arctic warming fastest and at least one year between 2026-2030 likely to exceed the 1.5C Paris threshold. US-Global Health: Reports say the Trump administration is considering sending Americans exposed to Ebola to a temporary treatment and quarantine centre in Kenya instead of returning them to the US. Trade & Industry: India and Canada reaffirm a $50bn trade goal as Piyush Goyal pushes CEPA talks in Toronto. Regenerative Food Push: A coalition of 40 food and agriculture firms backs a regenerative agriculture declaration to scale practices across supply chains. Politics & Rights: Thailand’s court acquits opposition figure Thanathorn over 2021 royal insult and cybercrime charges. Regional Business & Jobs: Northern Ireland’s Invest NI takes an Irish aviation firm to court over a jobs promise that fell far short. Eid Greetings: Leaders across multiple countries issued Eid al-Adha messages stressing sacrifice, unity and peace.